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Personal Plea

Author: Thomas Vincent posted on Monday, February 15th, 2010 at 4:03 pm

For a Web Log to truly grow and flourish it needs the support of those who read it. If you feel the ideas and opinions on this site have merit, I encourage you to help boost Certain Doubt’s readership by linking to the site through your own website, or web log. Add it to your RSS feed, or search engine favorites. Better still, Email or tell someone you know about it – a friend, an enemy – anyone you can think of who you think would enjoy it.

Personal web logs tend to be solitary endeavors; a little like whining in a dark closet. Without responses I have no way of knowing what the people who visit feel about the ideas I express. I encourage all who visit Certain Doubt to help make the site better by joining in the discussion.

Posted in Uncategorized  |  No Comments »

Julian and Goliath

Author: Thomas Vincent posted on Monday, August 30th, 2010 at 8:45 pm

I find the efforts of Julian Assange and his anonymous band of merry “Wikimen” to be admirable. Trying to combat a growing world trend towards opacity in government is a noble cause. However, I’m very much afraid they are too little, too late.


The sheer size of the juggernaut that is the modern American security state, the huge number of people, and the vast sums of money spent to keep classified information secret render any efforts by Wikileaks moot. The recent cache of 75,000 documents released to the Guardian, the New York Times and Der Speigel may seem like a staggering number. But the cache is a teardrop in the ocean compared to the number of classified documents produced every year by the United States government. As diligent as Wikileaks is, they can’t possibly keep up with the tsunami of pages of information that the American public has a right to know but will never see. They are no match for the legions of Homeland Security bureaucrats dedicated to keeping Julian Assange and others like him from getting access to that information. They are also no match for the legions of propagandists dedicated to spinning and marginalizing any leaks that do occur so that the effect of their release on public opinion is nullified. In short, obtaining and publishing a few classified documents is simply not going to stem the tide of secrecy in the United States.

Several commentators have attempted to draw parallels between Assange and Daniel Ellsberg. Because the Pentagon papers had an effect on ending the Vietnam war, many believe that Wikileaks can do the same for Obama’s war in Afghanistan. I believe, however, these comparisons to be specious. Ellsberg was a leaker who went directly to the newspapers with information he had helped create. Wikileaks by contrast, doesn’t do any of it’s own hacking or spying. It merely acts as a facilitator, a middleman, a warehouse of information to which leakers can come to disseminate secrets. Totally different animal. Totally different effect.

Also the times are totally different. During the 60’s and 70’s, media outlets like The Washington Post and CBS news not only had the ability to change public opinion, they reveled in their role as independent commentators. Nowadays, the fourth estate is totally toothless. Virtually all media outlets are owned by multinational corporations. Faux news outlets such as Rupert Murdoch’s FOX, Disney’s ABC, and General Electric’s NBC dominate what people hear and see. In contrast to previous generations, modern news broadcasting seems to see its role as being a cheerleader for different political party lines. As both major parties agree on promoting war this virtually assures that public opinion towards military actions such as those in the Middle East will not change.

Moreover, propaganda and message management has been honed to a fine craft. The introduction of “embedded reporting” spelled the end of independent war reporting. Can anyone imagine Walter Cronkite being allowed the freedom to report on the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan the way he did in Viet Nam? Or take the Pentagon papers. Assuming Daniel Ellsberg managed to find someone who would print them today they would be marginalized in the media and largely ignored by a public anesthetized and dumbed down by a steady stream of beer ads, football, and “reality TV.”

But the main reason why it is too late for Assange and company to change history is that the only constituency that really matters, the Obama administration, is deaf to their message. The same coalition of ideologues and corporate cronies who brought forth the invasion and occupation of Iraq and Afghanistan during the Bush Administration are still calling the shots… and they are not about to change course because of a few leaked documents. If you doubt this, consider the following:

1 The Downing Street Memos: The closest thing to a smoking gun you will ever find that proves President George W. Bush took America to war based upon a lie. The Downing Street memos created a small stir when the first came out and then were quietly and successfully buried in the press. The Obama administration shows absolutely no interest in opening an investigation.
2 The Bybee Memo: The infamous Bybee memo which in effect legalized torture: By itself, this document should have been enough to charge principals in the White House with war crimes. But again, after an initial furor the memos were buried.
3 Warrantless Wiretapping: The spying on American citizens without a warrant, a program in which, by his own admission, George W. Bush knowingly broke the law – and then lied to the American people about it. A policy such as this surely should have been considered grounds for impeachment. However, not only has the Obama administration failed to investigate, they have reinforced and institutionalized these surveillance policies. And the press has resonded without so much as a whisper of doubt.

Now we have the Wikileaks cache – what the Guardian and the New York Times refer to as “The Afghan logs.” It is perhaps not surprising that the governments response has been to excoriate Wikileaks in the press, claiming that Assange and his friends have “blood on their hands,” for releasing the documents. There have been calls for everything from indicting Wikileaks to tarring and feathering Assange. (Something that is currently happening with the recent molestation allegations against the Wikileaks founder.) But once again, the only thing that truly matters to the government is marginalizing the information contained in the Afghan logs and nullifying the effect they have on public opinion.In many ways, the Obama administration seems less worried about what the documents contain and more worried about making sure they do not negatively affect the public’s perception of the conflict.

Nowhere is there any interest in the press or the Government to respond to the documents honestly with an eye to questioning the wisdom and efficacy of the policies that produced them. In this regard, Wikileaks efforts have to be judged as a failure.

Julian Assange and Wikileaks may be fighting the good fight against government secrecy. But they are out manned, out gunned, and facing an ideological, bureaucratic and corporate enemy that is too large and well entrenched to be dislodged by printing a comparative handful of secret documents. I applaud the members of Wikileaks for their courage and determination but I’m afraid the outcome of this struggle is a forgone conclusion. In the Bible, David may have brought down mighty Goliath with a simple slingshot. In this case, however, Goliath is backed up by legions of cyber-secrecy warriors, a propaganda machine that never sleeps and a trillion dollar security and surveillance leviathan that gobbles up secrets like chum in a can. David (Assange) on the other hand stands armed only with a straw and a spitball.

From where I’m standing, the odds of victory in this struggle are not good.

Don’t get me wrong. I am rooting for Wikileaks. I hope they prevail. I really do. But if I were gambling man, in this fight, my money would definitely have to be on Goliath.

Tags: Assange, Ellsberg, Goliath, government, Julian, propaganda, secrecy, secrets, Thomas Vincent, Vincent, wikileaks
Posted in Daily Rant, Politics, economics, media, warfare  |  No Comments »

The Irony of Hubris

Author: Thomas Vincent posted on Tuesday, August 24th, 2010 at 11:09 am

The blogosphere has been lit up recently by accusations of rape/molestation against Wikileaks founder Julian Assange. (A Google search of “Wikileaks Rape” turned up 11 million hits.)

Several writers, including Assange himself, have derided the whole thing as a clumsy “dirty tricks” smear campaign orchestrated by the C.I.A. and the Pentagon.

I disagree… at least about the clumsy part.

If the C.I.A./Pentagon did have anything to do with the accusations leveled against Assange the plot shows a remarkable degree of elegance and subtlety. Either that or they got real lucky.

Consider, for example, the ironies of the situation:

1) Assange, a secretive man, finds himself embroiled in a tawdry and very public sex scandal that if even partly true completely dismantles his carefully cultivated a image as a man of mystery.

2) Wikileaks, a crusading whistle blower organization famous for leaking some 95,000 secret and embarrassing documents finds itself embarrassed when its founder finds details of his private sex life “leaked” to the press by an as yet unnamed whistle blower.

3) Assange, who came to Sweden seeking a safe haven for Wikileaks under their liberal whistle blower protection laws, find himself a victim of those same laws that protect the anonymity of his accusers.

I am in no way supporting or condemning Assange in all of this. I find the question of whether Julian Assange is guilty or innocent of the charges leveled at him largely irrelevant. Nether do I find the narrative that the C.I.A./ Pentagon was involved in a honey trap plot particularly compelling by itself.

I do find it fascinating that people in the news – mostly men it must be noted – persist in looking like deer in the headlights when they find details of their personal lives splashed across the tabloids. Elliot Spitzer, Mark Sanford, Larry Craig, and yes, even Bill Clinton. What sort of hubris runs through the veins of public officials who think that they alone will be exempt from sex scandals. Assange himself has intimated that he received warnings from Australian security agents that he could find himself the target of some form of dirty tricks smear campaign. And yet apparently he had “consensual” sex with at least one of the women named in the suit. What was he thinking? That he was some kind of super spook, that no aspect of his private life (like any his sexual activity) would ever wind up being made public? Did he think he was invincible?

The lessons of Spitzer, Sanford, Craig, and Clinton seem obvious to me. If you are a public personality, especially one who delights in “crushing bastards,” and you’ve been warned that those same bastards are out to entrap and smear you, don’t act so surprised and “disturbed” when your private sex life winds up on the front page.

For me, the ultimate irony of the Assange imbroglio is that the Wikileaks founder has made headlines by raising institutional information transparency to almost Holy Grail status, while at the same time insisting on maintaining a cult of personal privacy.

I hate to be the one to break it to him but life just doesn’t work that way.

Anyone who generates as much media buzz over their cause as Assange can’t expect to maintain a total “cone of silence” around their personal life. Anyone who acts as a front man for a crusade against government secrecy has to assume that anything he does in private won’t remain private for long. Whether he was the victim of dirty tricks or whether he simply got his comeuppance for acting like a dick in bed matters not one whit. By clinging to a fantasy image of an international man of mystery, one who is above the slings and arrows of tabloid journalism, Assange is guilty at the very least of extreme naivité. If he is the victim of a smear campaign, by his own hubris he made it awfully easy for his enemies.

Ultimately, the only thing the Assange scandal proves is that while he may be a successful blogger and hacker and exposer of secrets, as a super spy, I’m afraid he’s looking more and more like a total amateur.

Tags: Assange, C.I.A., dirty tricks, government, honey trap, hubris, irony, Pentagon, rape, scandal, sex, spy, Thomas Vincent, Vincent, wikileaks
Posted in Daily Doubt, Ethics, Politics, media, warfare  |  No Comments »

Let’s Talk Numbers

Author: Thomas Vincent posted on Friday, August 20th, 2010 at 9:19 am

According to Jack Kem, the Deputy to the Commander of NATO training mission in Afghanistan, the Afghan army now stands at around 134,000 troops. The number of police stand at 115,000.

Add this to the almost 120,000 NATO troops and their attendant 100,000 private contractors and you get a combined number of around 379,000 souls devoted to fighting the Taliban.

To put this into perspective, according to Major-General Richard Barrons, as of March 3, 2010, Taliban forces are estimated to number about 36,000 insurgents.

379,000 against 36,000. I’m no math genius but this looks to me like the Taliban are out numbered Ten to one.

Or to put it another way, with a population of barely 30 million, there are there is one soldier, policeman or foreign contractor for every 77 people in the country.

And the cost? The US has ponied up more than 335 billion dollars for it’s war effort in Afghanistan so far with no end in sight. This staggering amount of money has been spent on a country where two-thirds of the population live on fewer than 2 US dollars a day.

This is past insanity. It is bat shit crazy.

What is even crazier is that the enemy we are afraid of, al Qaeda, according to our own C.I.A. numbers as few as 50 men!

We have poured a third of a trillion dollars into a dirt poor country to “disrupt, dismantle and defeat’ a rag tag bag of fundamentalist nut jobs who’s greatest “victory” over our country was to highjack four airliners using box cutters and fly them into buildings?

300 billion dollars to hunt down 50 guys? Talk about over kill.

To put it into further perspective, Neighboring Pakistan has recently been the victim of catastrophic flooding that has affected some 20 million people. The US military has offered the use of four Chinook Helicopters and two black Hawk helicopters to support flood relief.

Six helicopters to help relief efforts for 20 million people?

By any measure, the United States has completely lost perspective as to what is important in the world. You can’t defeat box cutters with daisy cutters. Thousands of soldiers can’t defeat terrorists who aren’t there. And drones armed with Hellfire missiles are no use against catastrophic floods.

Tags: afghanistan, Al Qaeda, floods, numbers, pakistan, perspective, soldiers, Taliban, Terrorism, war, warfare
Posted in Daily Rant, Ethics, Politics, warfare  |  No Comments »

Morality of War in Afghanistan

Author: Thomas Vincent posted on Thursday, August 19th, 2010 at 4:24 pm

Since the dawn of history, men have fought wars of aggression.

And since the dawn of history men have sought to justify those wars…

They have failed.

There is no moral justification for starting a war. None. While there can be honest debate about the acceptability of violence in defense of one’s life or liberty, it is a perversion of the concept of morality to claim that it is right and just to be the aggressor and preemptively attack another nation for any reason whatsoever. Whether you call it “making the world safe for democracy,” or whether you claim you are simply seeking “lebensraum,” sending soldiers into battle without provocation is wrong. It is immoral, and yes it is evil.

Fact: Since the events of Pearl Harbor on December 7th 1941, no nation has attacked the United States. Despite prodigious amounts of government spin, in the past fifty years none of the conflicts in which we have engaged have been in defense of our shores. In every conflict since WW II in which the United States has begun, we have been the aggressors. Thus with regard to the defense of this nation, none of the wars and invasions we have begun were justifiable.

As I said, bullies of the past have always tried to justify their aggressive acts. The chief difference I see between wars of the past and today’s conflict is that today, those in power don’t even try to justify their actions. Take General David Petraeus for example. In a recent interview with David Gregory of MSNBC, General Petreaus spoke out on the “big issues” of the conflict in Afghanistan. He talked about “the public’s frustration with the war, the strength of the Taliban, the government of Hamid Karzai… and whether President Obama’s July of 2011 withdrawal timeline will hold.” In addition, Gregory added his own straw-man question to the mix: “Is nation building possible in the badlands of Afghanistan?”

However, no question was raised in the interview of the rightness of the United States’ cause. Not one word was devoted to the moral justification of invading and occupying Afghanistan, putting our soldiers in harm’s way, and bankrupting the country in the process.

Instead, Petraeus talked about the “importance of the mission” and how hard that mission was. But the rightness of the mission? Un uh. No way.

In addition to being morally vague, General Petraeus’ comments on the war were so ambiguous as to be practically double speak:

“What we have are areas of progress, we have to link those together, extend them and then build on it because, of course, the security progress, as you noted earlier is the foundation for everything else, for the governance progress, the economic progress, the rule-of-law progress and so forth… the trick is to get all of it moving so that you’re spiraling upward where one initiative reinforces another.”

If my head did much more “spiraling upward” it would leave my shoulders altogether.

Not only can’t Petraeus identify the moral underpinning of America’s cause, he has trouble identifying what constitutes success:

“…but if you could reduce the level of violence by some 90 to 95 percent, as was the case in Iraq, to below a threshold which allows commerce and business and outside investment to take place, where there is an election that’s certainly at least elected representatives, and now you have to see if they can come together and form a government that is still representative of and responsive to the people, as was the previous one. If that can all be achieved there, that would be a reasonable solution here as well. “

The hell with peace; the hell with freedom; the hell with winning hearts and minds, the most important moral justification for all the death and destruction we are causing is so that commerce can resume?

“If Afghanistan can become the central Asian “roundabout,” to use President Karzai’s term, to where it can be the new Silk Road, think of the implications for that, recalling that, of course, Afghanistan is blessed with the presence of what are trillions, with an S on the end, trillions of dollars worth of minerals if, and only if, you can get the extractive technology, the human capital operated, the lines of communication to enable you to get it out of the country and all the rest of that.”

Is he serious? The moral purpose behind fighting and killing and dying in Afghanistan is so that we can dig up some minerals?

In an August 14 article in Huffington Post, entitled “Why Petraeus can’t make the sale” Author Dan Froomkin identifies Petraeus’ main problem as a simple one of facing up to reality.

“That reality, increasingly obvious to national security experts and the general public alike, is that no amount of good intentions or firepower is going to advance our fundamental interests in Afghanistan — and that as much as Petraeus might be able to achieve in the next six months, or a year, little to none of it is sustainable and most of it is, even worse, counterproductive.”

I believe Petraeus’ problem to be much more basic. If the General truly cares about “making the sale” for continuing to fight a war in Afghanistan then either he or President Obama must offer up a clear and unambiguous moral reason for fighting it.

And as the United States was the one who invaded and is currently occupying Afghanistan – as well as being responsible for inflicting much of the damage – I think that is a hard sell indeed.

Tags: 9-11, afghanistan, agression, attack, history, Moral, Morality, Obama, Petraeus, preemptive, sale, Terrorism, Thomas Vincent, Vincent, war
Posted in Daily Doubt, Ethics, Politics, warfare  |  No Comments »

Silly Season

Author: Thomas Vincent posted on Wednesday, August 4th, 2010 at 10:13 pm

Okay, it’s primary time again and that means it’s silly season. On the off chance that there might be someone actually worthy of my vote, this year I read my local county “Official Voters Pamphlet” – from cover to cover. The following are some excerpts from actual candidates’ statements. The names of the candidates have been changed. Other than that, it’s all verbatim.

Trust me, I couldn’t make this stuff up.

Dr. Ali the Muslim – Candidate for U.S. Senate.

Statement: Though life long democrat, I am running now on Centrist party losing my faith in both democratic and republican parties establishment as they are subservient to special interest groups particularly AIPAC. As Palestinian American, an expert in matters related to Muslim world, with eighty percent of President Obama’s speech to Muslim world in Cairo and Turkish Parliament came from my two letters to him. In January 26th I was summoned to Washington DC in live debate to ninety million Arab audiences for 50 minutes through Al Jazeera that Obama was no different from Bush. My participation was tremendous.

Lunatic Jones – Candidate for U.S. Senate.

Education: Lunatic Jones earned two university degrees (bachelor followed by master) with important minors in economics. Nonsmoking, nondrinking, prosperous, healthy Lunatic (Minnesota born) is a life-long student of knowledge, such as economics, individual liberty, ownership, repairing, rejuvenation, space colonization…

Statement: Dear fellow sheeple, you are the flim-flammed, manipulated powerbase. It is your destiny to start the orbital space colonization of your solar system. You should already have more than 200 habitats orbiting your Earth, Moon, Sun, and Mars. But you don’t! Why? Because your wasteful leaders have not studied orbital space colonization.
As a student of economics, I, Lunatic, also want you to raise your wealth by increasing profits and incentives that create jobs for everyone willing to work. We are working way beneath our production-possibility curve!

To help unsabotage your economy and to increase employment for people with problems, please abolish your beloved, but evil minimum wage. If you google lunatic, you’ll find me and talented people who claim to be me: Lunatic Jones.

Daryl the Dishwasher – Candidate for U.S. Senate.

Elected Experience: 1988-Present I have run for 17 candidacies.

Other Professional Experience: Dishwasher for 31 years.

Statement: The last four years, 2006-2010, has been an economic roller-coaster disaster for many of us, here and elsewhere. During this time, business people submitted, or produced “fuzzy” mathematical numbers as ‘bait’ to the average consumer. For many of us, the lure seemed ‘too good to be true”. Re-finance your house. Go on (many) vacations. Buy a new car. Get a hair transplant, or fake ‘boobs’.

At first it seemed everyone had a job. A couple ‘blinks of the eye’, and it all vanished for many people. Their jobs too!
“…universities pay coaches in the millions of dollars per year, to fill stadium venues. They hand-out free scholarships to millions of student-atheletes per year, while their main fans on Wall Street continue to vacation at Disney World & White Sulfur Springs (WV). Or, as a custom, they cordially offer their season ticket seats to their business partners, as if it was all by design.

George Imertal – Candidate for U.S. Senate.

Elected Experience: None.

Statement: My name is George Imertal, and I am running for U.S. Senate. It’s no accident that our nation is having so many problems at this time. God is trying to get our attention and if He doesn’t get it soon, our nation’s woes can get a lot worse. God has the answer for all our problems, but first He wants to correct our attitude as a nation. His desire is to bless our nation to the point of making the rest of the world envies of the blessings He is bestowing on us… We need leaders that hear God’s voice and will follow His direction to set our nation on His course and find His blessings for us.

Hank Eastwood – Candidate for U.S.Senate.

Professional Experience: Farmer. Owner of an excavation company. Former professional football player. Played in three Super Bowls and won two championships.

Statement: I’ve lived the American Dream. Where else can a son of a potato farmer rise to play in the stardom of three Super Bowls? I want all kids to have a shot to become champions in their own ways as I’ve had. We need to follow our founders’ “game plan” of limited government and fiscal restraint. Sara Palin and many Grassroots liberty groups endorse me because they know I will work shoulder-to-shoulder with “We the people” to get our country back on the right course. I would be humbled to have your vote.

Leo Shlack – Candidate for U.S. Senate.

Community Service: Supervisor and leader, at sea, ashore, and abroad, of young men and women of every race, background, and orientation in the greatest Navy in the World.

Statement: Citizens, Lovers of Liberty, Washingtonians:
America is in deep pain. “Help me. I am lost and confused. I fear for my children.” She says. We can embrace America. We can wipe away her tears. We can help her and we can help us. Citizens of Washington, we have a duty – to do one good thing! Today and tomorrow. Lead America ahead on the proven ground, straight and steady.
We will walk side by side with America. When we are weary, when we can walk no more, our children will continue our journey. It is the right journey and it will take us to a good place.

Thomas Hewitt Volich – Candidate for U.S. Senate.
Elected Experience: No information submitted

Professional experience: Caregiver & defender of our Republic.
Community Service: National Rifle Association-life member, the Gun Owners of America-life member, the Washington gun collectors, the National Association of Letter Carriers, the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter day Saints.

Statement:
I am pro-life, pro-liberty, pro-audacity, pro-Sara Palin, and John Gault, Pro-charter schools and home schools. I am against cap and trade, against Obama Care, and against the new-world-order.

Okay, true confession time: I freely admit I cherry-picked these quotes to set each candidate out in a less than generous light.

But the point here is: I didn’t add anything. I didn’t have to.

The words you see here are actual quotes from the voter’s pamphlet written down by real people running for one of the highest offices in the land. And they read like they could have been written by the authors of The Onion.

Silly season. Don’t you just love it?

Tags: election, Politics, primary, senate, senator, The Onion, Thomas Vincent, Vincent, vote, voters
Posted in Daily Rant, Politics, humor  |  No Comments »

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