Certain Doubt

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Archive for the ‘economics’ Category

It Always Comes Down to Money.

Wednesday, June 1st, 2011

In the end it always comes down to money.

The recent article in the New York Times by David Sanger and Elisabeth Bumiller entitled “Pentagon to Consider Cyberattacks Acts of War,” presents a chilling scenario:

“The Pentagon, trying to create a formal strategy to deter cyberattacks on the United States, plans to issue a new strategy soon declaring that a computer attack from a foreign nation can be considered an act of war that may result in a military response.

The new military strategy… makes explicit that a cyberattack could be considered equivalent to a more traditional act of war.” NYT

Just what constitutes a “cyberattack” is not made clear except to say that “any computer attack that threatens widespread civilian casualties — for example, by cutting off power supplies or bringing down hospitals and emergency-responder networks — could be treated as an act of aggression.”

That the Pentagon should employ such a broad reaching definition for cyberattack should give us pause. But it is the proposed response to such an attack that is really mind blowing. In a Wall Street Journal article Pentagon officials outlined the rationale behind the policy:

One idea gaining momentum at the Pentagon is the notion of “equivalence.” If a cyber attack produces the death, damage, destruction or high-level disruption that a traditional military attack would cause, then it would be a candidate for a “use of force” consideration, which could merit retaliation.
WSJ

Given the increasing alacrity with which the United States has been exercising its military muscle around the world, the conclusions about the effects of this policy are inescapable. As one military official is quoted as saying:

“If you shut down our power grid, maybe we will put a missile down one of your smokestacks.”

The putative logic presented by the Pentagon is that by laying out a clear and forceful policy for dealing with threats such as malicious cyber attacks, the Pentagon will – at least in theory – provide a deterrent. The model quoted in the article is that of the deterrent posed by an American policy of absolute retaliation in the event of a nuclear attack.

“A parallel, outside experts say, is the George W. Bush administration’s policy of holding foreign governments accountable for harboring terrorist organizations, a policy that led to the U.S. military campaign to oust the Taliban from power in Afghanistan.” WSJ

The main problem with the Pentagon proposal is that it is a stunning display of overkill. Not only is it hard to imagine which foreign country would be lurking out there with the capability or desire to inflict lethal cyber-damage on the United States, but it defies belief that any bit of cyber chicanery that such a country could come up with could possibly produce the kind of devastation that a single nuclear warhead could wreak. Thus, the kind of “mutually assured cyber-destruction that the Pentagon is implying is not only unnecessary, it is incredibly assymetrical and in no way “equivalent.” It’s sort of like responding to a bee sting by hitting the hive with a 2,000 lb. bunker buster.

Another problem with the Pentagon’s policy is that most of the cyberattacks that the United States has acknowledged have come not from foreign nations at all but from independent hackers and loose-nit organizations such as “Annonymous.” Given the broad definition the Pentagon puts forth it wouldn’t be much of a stretch to label any malicious cyber activity as an attack that would merit a military response. One can even envision a group of strategists in the Pentagon basement thinking up strategies for dropping a smart bomb down Julian Assange’s chimney.

Even when cyber attacks represent legitimate threats, it is often difficult to pin down where the attack originates from. As the NYT article notes:

“During the cold war, deterrence worked because there was little doubt the Pentagon could quickly determine where an attack was coming from — and could counterattack a specific missile site or city. In the case of a cyberattack, the origin of the attack is almost always unclear, as it was in 2010 when a sophisticated attack was made on Google and its computer servers. Eventually Google concluded that the attack came from China. But American officials never publicly identified the country where it originated, much less whether it was state sanctioned or the action of a group of hackers.”

“One of the questions we have to ask is, How do we know we’re at war?” one former Pentagon official said.

Another variable not explored in either the Wall Street Journal or The New York Times is the sometimes tenuous dividing line between the U.S. government and the defense contractors it employs. For example, Lockheed Martin recently claimed it’s information systems were the target of a “cyber attack”

Given the fact that Lockheed Martin’s products include the Trident missile, P-3 Orion spy plane, F-16 and F-22 Raptor fighter jets and C-130 Hercules military cargo planes among many other major weapons systems, could this attack on a private corporation be considered an attack on the United States and thus one that would merit a military response by the U.S. military? With all the various contractors and sub-contractors now employed by the Pentagon would a cyber attack on any of them be considered an act of war?

If the danger is not clear and present, if the culprits are hard, if not impossible to identify, and if the list of targets is endless, why on earth would the Pentagon be proposing military action, i.e. war, as a response?

Not surprisingly, like so much that comes out of the Pentagon , the answer comes down to money.

“The Pentagon strategy is coming out at a moment when billions of dollars are up for grabs among federal agencies working on cyber-related issues, including the National Security Agency, the Central Intelligence Agency and the Department of Homeland Security. Each has been told by the White House to come up with approaches that fit the international cyberstrategy that the White House published in May. “

Thus, once again, the Pentagon’s strategy for dealing with a perceived attack has little or nothing to do with protecting the homeland.

Surprise, surprise. Once again, it’s all about the Benjamins baby!

Tags: Benjamins, Certain Doubt, cyber attacks, cyberattacks, defense, ethical, government, money, Pentagon, reddit, retaliation, spectacle, Thomas Vincent, Vincent, war
Posted in Daily Rant, Ethics, Politics, economics, government, technology, warfare | No Comments »

Legacy of the Rich.

Wednesday, May 18th, 2011

Over the past several years I have read and listened to pundits who decrying the demise of the daily newspaper, the weekly magazine, even hard backed novels. Most of the conversation has focused on economics. Declining ad revenues and rising costs have put the squeeze on the fourth estate forcing them to cut back staff and even shutter their doors for good. Moreover, many have claimed that the advent of instantaneous electronic news sources have rendered the traditional daily paper obsolete.

There is some element of truth to all these explanations. However, as tempting as it may be to blame the demise of print media on obsolescence and economic viability, I think there is a deeper systemic problem that is not being addressed.

I’m talking about content.

While newspapers may be under stress from cheaper and faster ways of people getting their news, I feel the daily paper is putting itself out of business, at least in part, for the simple reason that less and less of what finds its way into print these days is worth reading. Not only is much of the reporting two dimensional, the commentary vapid and trite, but increasingly I find it harder and harder to identify just who the newspapers think is their target audience.

Take the following article from the New York Times:

“Wealthy Hesitate to take a Break on Estate Taxes.”
Paul Sullivan
May 13, 2011.
“President Obama and the Republican Congress gave the wealthiest Americans an enormous gift at the end of 2010. They increased the exemption on a series of estate-related taxes and lowered the tax rate on any amount over those limits…. But five months into the tax break, the people able to fully exploit it are more tentative than wealth advisers had expected.”

Who is this article written for? The super rich? If so, the target audience is an awful small slice of the Times readership. To his credit Sullivan tries to make his revelation relevant:

“So why are the richest Americans hesitating to take advantage of this tax break? It comes down to two fears that bedevil everyone: They don’t want to put too much aside now in case they need it later, and they don’t want to take away their children’s incentive to work.”

The first part of this statement is actually grotesque. There are plenty of people in this country with nothing: no home, no savings, no IRA. The thought that there are people out there who actually have 10 million dollars to leave to their progeny is positively repulsive.

Actually, in a way, the first part of this statement is something of a test of a person’s wealth. That is to say, if you worry about how much money you’ll have left after gifting $10 million to your kids, I hate to tell you, but you simply aren’t that rich. The estate tax break for “the wealthiest Americans” is not written for those with ten million or twenty million. It really only applies to people whose net worth vastly exceeds the ten million dollar limit. Ironically, the “savings” realized by eliminating the estate tax on the first ten million is really chump change for the super, super wealthy. For the rest of us, it doesn’t apply at all.

The second part of the rationale presented for why people haven’t made use of the estate tax exemption makes even less sense. Most of my friends have zero savings. Many are living paycheck to paycheck with mortgages, car payments and student loans to pay off. Some are recently unemployed. None of them are worried one whit about how giving ten million to their kids will ruin their work ethic. Most are simply worried about being a burden to their kids in their old age.

Even if you have some assets, the idea of holding out on your kids so they’ll work harder, it is a questionable strategy. While it may appeal to Calvinist “bootstrap” Republicans, the reality is the economic times in which we live markedly different than when baby boomers and their parents came of age, with fewer job prospects and fewer opportunities to “make something of themselves.” In another stunning display of irony, of the few people I know who actually do have ten million dollars in the bank most got their boodle, not by working for it but by… wait for it… receiving an inheritance! The idea that anyone who has received an inheritance should hold out on their children in order to – as one person quoted in Sullivan’s article – “incentivize them” to do well is grotesque in the extreme.

The real issue I have with this article is not Sullivan’s assertion that people are not taking advantage of the estate tax loophole is because they’re worried about what giving too much money will do to their offspring. The real bone I have to pick is that Sullivan completely ignores the possibility why not many people are taking advantage of the loophole is that there simply aren’t that many people who truly fall into the category of the “wealthiest Americans.” According to a paper by by G. William Domhoff of the University of California,:

According to a study published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, only 1.6% of Americans receive $100,000 or more in inheritance. Another 1.1% receive $50,000 to $100,000. On the other hand, 91.9% receive nothing (Kotlikoff & Gokhale, 2000).

Thus it is conceivably possible that the reason not many wealthy people are taking advantage of the loophole is that there simply aren’t that many super wealthy people in America these days.

For many reasons, lousy scholarship and research, lazy quoting and pathetically bad writing the Sullivan article is bad reporting. But what makes it worse is that the number of people who benefit at all from the tax loophole the author is writing about is so vanishingly small that the article’s usefulness to the readers whom the New York Times is marketing the paper is questionable at best.

If papers like the New York Times truly wanted to stay relevant and economically viable, perhaps they should stop writing articles aimed at phantom “wealthy Americans” who no longer exist. If Paul Sullivan is truly concerned with what his legacy will do to his kids, perhaps he should concentrate on writing articles about carbon emissions, climate change, and pollution.

That’s the real legacy of the rich.

Tags: cetraindoubt, content, economics, estate tax, legacy, loopholes, media, news, newspapers, print, rich, taxes, Thomas Vincent, Vincent, wealthy
Posted in Daily Rant, Ethics, Politics, economics, government, media | No Comments »

How to Become a Millionaire.

Friday, April 29th, 2011

I am constantly amazed at the naiveté of people seeking financial advice about retirement. Advisors usually begin and end by telling us to save, save, and save again. Admonishments to save money are not a bad thing. However, the unfortunate fact is that the promise of fiscal independence in old age is largely illusory. Why?Most of us will simply not make enough money to last us till we die. Consider the following article:

Start With $10,000 and Retire a Millionaire

by Jonathan Burton
Wednesday, April 27, 2011 MarketWatch

The 7% solution: Let money and time work for you, no matter your age.
The millionaire next door could be you.
All it takes is money and time; it always does. But what this really means is you have to save money over time, and that’s where so many of us struggle.

The premise here, the hook in the con if you will, is that all you need to do to have a million dollars in the bank is be frugal and save money.

Reaching age 65 with $1 million saved requires strong discipline and sustained effort. You need to recognize the importance of starting early and putting money away regularly. But even if you don’t have as much time, you still have options other than a last-ditch Hail Mary pass.
It can be done — even if you start with just $10,000.

To my way of thinking this is a huge leap from the initial premise. First we are told that all we need do to reach age 65 with $1 million large is to save money. Now it appears that before you embark on this savings journey you must first scrape together a stake of $10,000. The authors’ rationale for this nice round figure?

“Whether you’re 25 or 45 or even 55, you’ve got to start somewhere,” said Nathan Dungan, founder of financial education firm Share Save Spend.

Okay, for the sake of argument, let’s assume I have a rich and generous uncle who has left me $10K. How am I to get from that to $1million?

Call it a 7% solution. Assume a 7% inflation-adjusted return from a portfolio of U.S. and international stocks, bonds and cash — not overly aggressive, but an expected return that requires taking some risk — and living well within your means.

Assume a 7% inflation adjusted return? From stocks, bonds and cash? This is a huge assumption. Grand Canyon huge. And what do the authors mean by “some risk?” The mere fact that the author introduces risk into the equation means that there is a chance that if the economy tanks your 7% return could just as easily become a 7% loss. The author conveniently leaves this possibility out.

“In order to save, you have to understand your spending,” said Eric Kies, a financial adviser with The Planning Center, an investment manager in Moline, Ill. “Build some awareness of where you are now, where do you want to be, and what are you willing to do to get there.”

Of course there will be bumps along the road — potholes, even, that challenge your resolve. The financial markets love to shake and stir individual investors; don’t give up, because it may be hard to get back in.

“It’s less about where the money is invested and more about your ability to be disciplined,” Dungan said. “Ask yourself, What is realistic? What can I achieve? The best savers don’t have magical thinking about money. They’re honest with themselves.”

If we’re really to be honest about our money, starting out with assumptions like: a.) I have $10,000 to throw around and b.) that I can manage to find investments that cumulatively total 7% is the very essence of magical thinking. My Chase bank savings account yields a whopping .10%! If I purchase a one year CD I can raise it to .20%! Where is this magical investment that yields a 7% return? The author doesn’t say.

25 Years Old: Starting Out
Forty years is a long time. So long, in fact, that it’s easy to put off saving for the future. There are bills to deal with, college debt to pay, stuff to buy, vacations to take, a career to build.
Savings — sure, but who has money for that? Indeed, one of every three Americans between the ages of 18 and 33 have no personal savings, according to a recent Harris Poll survey. What’s more, 53% of this age group has zero in the way of retirement savings.

They’re missing out, big time. If a 25-year old with $10,000 invested $320 a month at a 7% annual compound rate of return until they turned 65, they would wind up with $1 million.

Okay, freeze the frame here. The author quotes a Harris poll saying 30% of young Americans have no personal savings, yet he also states that for his roadmap to work, everyone somehow has to magically have access to $10K. This makes no sense. If I have no savings, if I’m living from paycheck to paycheck, where the hell am I going to find $10,000?

Moreover, $320 a month doesn’t sound too bad. But multiply it by twelve and it adds up to $3840a year. If I’m making 10 dollars an hour, I’m clearing $400 a week and 1600 a month. This translates to $19,200 a year. Take out the cost of food, rent, utilities, and health care and the chance of having enough left each month to put $320 into a personal retirement investment account is slim to none. And we haven’t even mentioned money taken out for social security and taxes.

“There’s a reason why Albert Einstein called compounding the most powerful force in the universe,” said Jonathan Guyton, a principal at investment manager Cornerstone Wealth Advisors in Minneapolis.

Whether or not Einstein really said this, the math speaks for itself. At 7%, your money doubles every 10 years.

Okay, assuming the math is correct, what about this 7% figure? Inflation is currently at 2.86%. In recent years it has been as high as 4%. Thus in order to wind up with a total 7% return I actually have to come up with one that is quite a bit larger than 7%. Depending on what the stock market does and how the economy is faring, it might be difficult to build a portfolio that nets a 7% after inflation return.

And what if you haven’t got forty productive years to start socking money away? If you are approaching retirement and have no savings, even coming in to a $10k lottery payout isn’t going to allow you to become a millionaire. As the author admits older workers are up the financial creek sans paddle.

At 55, the amount needed to reach $1 million with a $10,000 bankroll is both comical and sad: $5,700 a month for 10 years.

$5,700 a month? That’s over $58,000 a year. I know plenty of folks who don’t make half that in salary a year. Under this scenario there’s no way for them to achieve the magical million dollar mark.
The sad fact is that even if they start when they are 25 year old, most people will not earn enough salary to be able to sock away even a fraction of the money necessary to achieve the author’s rags to riches scenario.

And even if they did, when they retire, a $1,000,000 nest egg that nets even a 3% return will only provide a fixed income of $30,000 a year. That might seem like a lot. But take out income tax, property tax, food, gas, shelter, and nursing care and the likelihood that our 65 year old retiree will have to start tapping that $1 million nest egg every year to pay for his or her health, maintenance, and welfare is almost certain.
Furthermore, if our saver lives another twenty years, and if they are forced to spend their savings in order to survive, a million dollars may not even be enough to see them through. One major or catastrophic illness and they could be wiped out and just as broke as if they hadn’t saved a dime.

The sad unstated fact in this whole article is that most of us really don’t stand a chance of being able to save our way to financial independence. And if the author were honest with us – and with himself – he would say so and not keep touting some magical, mythical “American Dream” that all we have to do to be secure in our old age is exhibit fiscal discipline and good savings habits.

The only people who really stand a chance at socking away enough money for a comfortable retirement are those who start out with large inheritances or those who earn really large salaries and bonuses.

You can work your fingers to the bone, but unless you’re really fortunate, your chances of even being able to pay your bills at the end of your life are slim. Sorry to be the bearer of bad news but facts are facts.

Tags: economics, investment, Millionaire, nest egg, poor, retirement, rich, savings
Posted in Daily Doubt, Ethics, Politics, economics, media | No Comments »

Believe

Thursday, April 14th, 2011

In every good presidential speech there is a theme, a meme, or a basic idea. Usually it is typified by a catchy phrase: From Gerald Ford’s lame “Whip inflation Now,” to JFK’s “Ask not what your country can do for you…,” to even Martin Luther King’s “I have a dream.”

In every one of his speeches President Obama has tried to emulate this. But I very much fear that his rhetorical efforts are starting to ring hollow. After rallying the electoral troops with his one word slogan “Hope” and the inspirational, “Change is coming to America,” Obama’s recent efforts such as the tepid “Win The Future,” make President Obama sound like a caricature of candidate Obama.

Now we have his latest speech. Given ostensibly to address the budget deficit, the national debt, and what to do about it it has been hailed by many as a “watershed moment in his presidency. If his choice of tagline was any indication, however, we are all in a lot of trouble.

Believe.

That’s it. That’s the whole speech. That’s what his whole economic plan comes down to.

Believe.

In the speech at George Washington University the President used the word twenty-seven times. I believe, you believe, we believe, most Americans believe. It’s almost as if he was lecturing on grammar and not economics.

The main thing wrong with Mr. Obama’s choice of catch phrase is it requires the American people to believe, not in their country, not in an ideal of freedom and justice, but rather in their President’s desire, strength, and toughness to defend those ideals from the greed of big business and multi-millionaires. Unfortunately, given his record since entering office I no longer believe he has the stuff necessary to stand up for the little guy and fight for the “kind of country that we believe in.”

It was bad enough that Mr. Obama use of the word “believe” to try and rally people to his cause. “But we do not have to sacrifice the America we believe in.” However, his application of the word to the very people he intends to ask for sacrifice is downright pitiful: “I believe reform should protect the middle class, promote economic growth, and build on the fiscal commission’s model of reducing tax expenditures so that there’s enough savings to both lower rates and lower the deficit…. I believe that most wealthy Americans would agree with me. They want to give back to their country, a country that’s done so much for them.”

My God, on the one hand he’s telling us that rich folk have made out like bandits due to tax breaks (which he admits he voted for) and on the other hand he’s trying to convince us that aw shucks, in their heart of hearts, corporate CEOs really “…want to give back to their country, a country that’s done so much for them.” Not to put too fine a point on it but if President Obama truly believes that the super wealthy want to give back to their country, I have some ocean front property in Death Valley to show him. ”

If Obama had any cajones at all, he wouldn’t be wheedling and cajoling and trying to convince us that the “American dream” is still alive and well, if only we believe. He wouldn’t be exhorting us all to believe that republicans and their wealthy overlords are really decent people at heart who want what’s best for the country.

Baloney!

The Koch Brothers could care less about America, democracy, or caring for the poor and indigent. Rupert Murdoch certainly does not believe in the vision of America that Obama tries to lay out in his speech. At times in his speech, Obama seems almost as if he’s trying to convince himself to believe that “… somewhere lost in this quagmire of petty bickering on every news station, the ‘American Dream’ is still alive…”

If Mr. Obama truly believed in the vision that he was trying to sell the American people, he could do much for his believability by choosing to surround himself with a different crew of advisors. As Glenn Greenwald so pithily put it: “…does anyone think that Bill Daley, Tim Geithner and his army of Rubin acolytes and former Goldman Sachs executives are sitting around in rooms desperately trying to prevent budget cuts and entitlement “reforms”?”

I make no excuses for the fact that I don’t believe the American Dream is alive and well. Sadly,judging from his economic team and his record of caving anytime the Republicans’ millionaire masters order up more tax breaks for themselves, I don’t really think Obama believes it himself.

The country is being screwed by the rich. Until such time as President Obama acknowledges this fact and institutes policies designed to prevent it, I’m afraid I have little hope that that anything he does will make average Americans’ lives better…

That’s what I believe… and I’m sticking to it.

Tags: believe, certaindoubt, deficit, doubt, economy, Ethics, Greenwald, Obama, poor, republican, rich, Ryan, Thomas Vincent, Vincent
Posted in Daily Doubt, Ethics, Politics, economics, government, media | No Comments »

WAKE UP!

Wednesday, April 13th, 2011

In a recent article in Truthdig [and other sites] columnist Robert Scheer sums up the insane nature of the current “debate” about which direction America should take to solve its economic woes:

It’s convenient for them [the wealthy]that the media and the politicians, which they happen to own, rarely connect the dots between the scams that made the rich so rich and the alarming rise in the federal debt that is crushing this nation.

The result of this purchased public myopia is that we are left with an absurd debate over how deeply to cut teachers’ pensions and seniors’ medical benefits while preserving tax breaks for the superrich and their large corporations. At a time when 10 million American families will have lost their homes by year’s end, when $5.6 trillion in home equity has been wiped out, when most Americans face steep unemployment rates and stagnant wages, a Democratic president is likely to compromise with Republican ideologues who insist that further cuts in taxes for the rich is the way to bring back jobs.

Let’s deal right off with that canard. There is currently no shortage of corporate profits or excessive executive compensation to explain away the failure of the private sector to create jobs. On the contrary, as The New York Times reports, “In the fourth quarter, profits at American businesses were up an astounding 29.2 percent, the fastest growth in more than 60 years. Collectively, American corporations logged profits at an annual rate of $1.678 trillion.” And to add insult to injury, the top executives, who seem unable or unwilling to create jobs or adequately reward their workers, have increased their own compensation by a whopping 12 percent over the previous year, setting the median pay at $9.6 million per year for those in control of the leading 200 companies.

For the vast majority of Americans – yes, that means you – tax cuts for the rich will not help you. There is nothing about a tax cut for wealthy people and corporations that will guarantee jobs in your neighborhood. All that tax cuts for the rich do is make the rich richer.

The current debate about how best to balance the budget is obscene in the extreme. As a working American how can you even consider balancing the budget by slashing social programs that provide services which you need in favor of providing tax cuts for billionaires? It makes no sense.

In her recent book, “Never Say Die,” author Susan Jacoby points to one area where cuts in social spending will cause untold harm to millions of Americans. “Social security payments account for more than 80 percent of the income of half the Americans over age sixty-five who live on less than $19,000 a year. And when one considers the Congressional Research Service’s finding that three-fourths of Americans over sixty-five have annual incomes under $34,000, it is obvious that Social Security is desperately needed by everyone but the small minority of the super rich.”

Virtually everyone in the Nation knows someone who depends on Social Security, Medicare, or Medicaid. Yet, elected officials like Representative Paul Ryan who stand and blithely insist that, in essence, the way to solve our problems is by balancing the budget by slashing programs that benefit destitute old people, continue to get elected. Why?

Unless you are a multi-millionaire making over a million dollars a year, if you vote for any candidate that proposes lowering taxes on the rich and multinational corporations YOU ARE A FOOL!

If you pull the lever in the voting both for any candidate that proposes slashing social programs, YOU ARE BEING PLAYED!

Wake up people!

Tags: budget, certaindoubt, economics, government, poor, rich, Scheer, Social Security, super rich, tax cuts, taxes, Thomas Vincent, Vincent
Posted in Daily Rant, Ethics, Politics, economics, government, media | No Comments »

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