The Scent of Revolution
Saturday, February 5th, 2011
I find the popular uprisings in North Africa fascinating. Fascinating and exhilarating. Watching the video feed from Al Jazeera English is high drama. But as the drama unfolds, the most surprising thing about what is happening in Egypt and Tunisia is that the principal reaction in Washington D.C. seems to be one of… surprise.
At first blush it might seem odd that elected officials in America should be taken aback by the uprisings. Not only do we supposedly have the best intelligence apparatus that money can buy, but as our own country was founded on a popular revolution, it shouldn’t be too surprising when oppressed people in other countries rise up to throw off their shackles.
But on second look Washington’s bewilderment is not really all that strange. For one thing, the revolution that initiated the founding of our country happened more than two hundred years ago. And though we’ve had plenty of popular movements since then – union riots, race riots, even antiwar protests – and one horrible civil war, our country hasn’t seen the kind of mass uprising Egypt is experience since… well, one could argue we’ve never experienced anything like what is happening in Egypt. Few countries have.
Our own revolutionary war, as bloody and confrontational as it was, did not mobilize anywhere near the numbers of people that have taken to the streets in Egypt and Tunisia. Moreover, our revolution was one for independence from a repressive autocracy. In Egypt and Tunisia the mass movements there are not striving for independence; they are trying to overthrow and replace a repressive regime. We’ve never done that in this country.
Thus it is not wholly surprising that the leadership in this country should have a deer in the headlights look when it comes to deciding what to do about the revolutions in North Africa. America has simply never faced the kind of massive popular movement that Egypt and Tunisia are experiencing where people hit the streets for days at a time, marching, chanting, and demanding regime change.
At least, it hasn’t happened yet.
The fact that the Obama administration was caught short by the unrest in North Africa is troubling. But I feel the cause for alarm lies not in the failure of our intelligence apparatus. I think the problem is deeper and more systemic than a few missed signals and inadequate briefings. Americans will always be caught unawares by popular uprisings because we have no conception of what they are like. We have no clue what causes a countrywide regime changing popular revolution because we’ve never experienced one. There is no playbook, no script with cliff notes that outline a “drama in three acts.”
That is the nature of revolution. That is what makes it so interesting.
The Obama administration has been doing a lot of backpedaling over Egypt. There have been lots of mixed messages.
The United States “can’t dictate who the leader of Egypt should be.”
But of course we support an orderly transition with Omar Sulieman as interim president
An interesting thought experiment – one that I have yet to hear anyone mention – is what would Obama be doing were the shoe on the other foot? If there were millions of people camped out on the Mall in Washington D.C. burning Obama in effigy and calling for his ouster, would he step down? Or would he cling to power claiming that to step down would be “giving into chaos.” Would he allow muscle bound goons to roam freely among the protesters bashing heads and bloodying anyone with press credentials? Would he shut down the internet? Would he name Leon Panetta as his vice president with the stipulation that Obama would stay in power until there was “an orderly transition?”
Moreover, what would our allies be doing? Would they be sitting by while we, the world’s sole remaining super power and the possessor of the world’s biggest arsenal of nukes underwent a tense standoff between a dictatorial leader and a people fed up with his repression?
When looked at in this light the Obama administration’s failure to come out squarely on the side of the Egyptian people is truly grotesque. To not acknowledge and embrace a revolution when it is clear that it is truly the will of the masses (“They the people?”) is one more indication that the United States government has lost whatever moral compass it once possessed.
Obama is correct when he says that America can’t decide who the next leader of Egypt should be. But his reasoning is all screwed up. The reason we have no right to dictate what type of government replaces the existing one has nothing to do with self-determination and our not wanting to engage in nation building. The reason we don’t have a right to any say in Egypt’s future is because when it comes to democracy, America no longer occupies the moral high ground. One of the only reasons that Hosni Mubarak stayed in power as long as he did was because the United States bankrolled the Egyptian military leader to the tune of billions of dollars. The Egyptian people know this. Because of our past involvement in Egypt’s affairs they also know anything that Obama says with regard to Egypt’s future is largely bogus and self serving.
Thus when Washington comes out and supports Sulieman’s bid to take over in order to have a “smooth transition to democracy” the Egyptian people know this is code for “maintain the status quo.” The United States will always support the status quo in Egypt, even if it means repression and poverty continue.
It takes a lot to get millions of people into the streets. It took 24 years for the Tunisians to kick out Ben Ali. It took thirty years of repression, massive unemployment, and poverty for the people in Egypt to finally say, “enough is enough” to Hosni Mubarak. It’s true that we’ve never had the kind of large scale repression and crushing poverty that has plagued Tunisia and Egypt for decades. But that’s not to say we couldn’t.
Given the trouble we are having dealing with our own unemployment rate and the growing disparity in wealth one wonders what it would take for people in this country to get as fed up with our government as the people of Tunisia and Egypt?
When it comes to the unrest in Egypt, Mr. Obama would be well advised to stop waffling and more time taking notes. Maybe then he won’t be so surprised when his own people get pissed enough to start their own revolution.

